One's personality is both a composition and reflection, but if I have to choose one of them, I will choose reflection as the "self" is more important to me than "me". One's composition may change, walking across the cultural landscapes and climbing the social ladder but one's self is tied to one's reflections. The fun part is that reflections are not bound to "Time-Space" barriers ( it is not time-space) and respective mental constructs, which have grown so thick over ages, that they had reduced the image of humans to Sisyphus, rolling different sizes of boulders on hills of different heights.… As the name of this Blog indicates, knols are my perspectives on topics of interests, sweet/bitter experiences or just doodling :)

Saturday, July 8, 2023

The one rule that never fails me in any situation

    I have come across many books, articles, and videos that claim to have a certain number of rules for success. These rules often have a catchy number, such as the top 10 rules for a successful life, a healthy life, or personal finance. But none of them have made a lasting impression on me. If you google the top 10 rules on any topic, from finance and health to success and relationships, you will find countless best-selling books and even celebrities endorsing such ideas. Here is an example of what Google search shows for the top 10 rules of success:

Similarly, here is what Google search displays for the top 10 rules on personal finance:


    These are all valuable tips, but they don’t match what I experience every day. On the other hand, one phrase that my father, a person who never had a chance to attend school even for a day, taught me has stayed with me like a golden rule. Whatever I do, the outcomes only confirm this golden rule. Let me give you some examples:

    When I cook, adding too much of any ingredient spoils the dish. Too much salt makes it salty, too much water makes it soggy, too much oil makes it greasy, and too much sugar makes it sweet… When I garden, overwatering kills the plants, as does too much sun, shade, pruning, or fertilizer… Anything in excess harms the plant. Exercise is good but overdoing it tires you out and makes you quit after a while. Walking is good for you but walking too much leaves you sore and stiff the next day. I don’t want to bore you with my trivial examples. But if you look around and pay attention to what people say or write, you will find countless examples of how too much of anything ruins life, nature, society, health… and even a meal.

    For example, consider a best-selling book on Amazon that offers financial advice: “The 10X Rule: The Only Difference Between Success and Failure” [1] by Grant Cardone. The author advises readers to write down their goals and dreams in specific and measurable terms (for example, you want to earn enough in the next 5 years to have 1 million dollars in cash, a common wish for many people and also the first challenging step towards financial freedom), and then multiply them by 10X. If you plan to make 10 sales calls today, multiply that by 10X, and so on. This book has about 11000 ratings on Amazon. The idea sounds appealing but is it realistic and sustainable? Can you imagine the impact of such a drastic push on your health, relationships, and even your own dream? Suppose you want to lose 10 pounds in a month (which I have seen people do, a reasonable goal). If you apply the 10X rule and try to lose 100 pounds in a month, you will surely fail and exhaust yourself, which will destroy your motivation to pursue your dream. Most of what we do requires long-term effort, whether it is health, financial freedom, education or career goals, learning a skill, or building something… all require long-term effort. A short-term burst is achievable but if we can’t maintain it, it will fade away, along with the dream it was meant to fulfill.

    If you look around, you will see that we are applying the 10X rule in every aspect of modern society, from education to social activism and justice to finance and health… just to name a few. And then you might wonder why society is falling apart. Why is there so much mistrust, division, and hatred? The 10X mentality is the main culprit. The Abrahamic religions, which started as a message of human equality, now have some of the most violent, racist, and intolerant followers. Their 10X belief in their values makes them so self-righteous that they see anyone who doesn’t fit their standards as deserving of punishment.

So, what was my father's golden rule (Following in Hazaragi): 

کار کو بہ اندازہ           کی از دیست و پائے نہ اندازہ 

Translation: Work hard but within your limits so that you can keep it up for a long time (or work hard but not beyond your physical capacity so that you can endure it for a long time).


External Links:

[1] Book: The 10X rule: The difference by success and failure; https://tinyurl.com/yckv2a8u 
[2] Author Grant Cardone; https://grantcardone.com/ 



Thursday, July 6, 2023

The illogical fear of Artificial Intelligence


    In the previous article, I argued that notions of “AI will end humanity” or “AI will end human civilization” boldly cross the nonsensical fear territory with hypersonic speed, and land directly into the mysterious lands of bullshits (Pardon my language, please!). Before I get paralyzed by the fear of the unknown and speculate about a future that has not yet happened, I prefer to look back and see how the “paradigm shift” kind of technologies have affected humanity and human civilization. Among the many tools that humans have invented, let’s focus on the “cognitive-aid tools” such as AI. Since generative AI consists of large language models - sets of machine learning algorithms - trained or applied to vast data [1] produced by humans as well as machines, we can trace the origins of AI as far back as cave art. It took humanity more than 64000 years from cave art to AI-generated imageries and texts. In 64000 years, humanity has seen the rises and declines of many civilizations but none is associated with the innovation of “cognitive-aid tools”. 


The image is produced by Bing AI

Cognitive aid tools as accelerators of human civilizations: 


    Cave art is the oldest known form of human expression (a form of data produced by humans). Some of the oldest examples of cave art, such as the paintings in Maltravieso cave in Caceres, Spain, date back to 64,000 years ago [2]. Writing, on the other hand, emerged much later in human history. Some of the oldest records of writing, preserved in the form of Sumerian clay tablets, are only 3,400 years old [3]. These tablets were used for record-keeping by a number of independent city-states that formed the Sumerian civilization [4]. There is no evidence that the transition from painting to writing had any negative impact on any civilization. On the contrary, there is plenty of evidence that writing helped the city-states expand into empires that fostered the development of human civilizations. Even people like Graham Hancock [5], who believe that human civilization is much older and use the “Younger Dryas Impact Hypothesis” [6] to support their claims, do not argue that the supposed ancient civilization was destroyed by any innovation of cognitive-aid tools such as painting, writing or printing machines. However, it is worth mentioning here that Hancock’s claims of a much older civilization have been debunked by others [7].


The image is generated by Bing AI


    No matter what your position is in this debate, one thing is clear: the invention of writing as a more efficient form of communication and record-keeping than painting did not harm human civilization but boosted its growth and expansion. Writing enabled humans to record laws, history, recipes, medicine, science, philosophy, and many other aspects of human knowledge and culture. Further evidence comes from the invention of printing machines. The printing machines did not make writers and painters obsolete but rather created new opportunities for them to flourish. The printing machines also facilitated the education of the masses, which was essential for the industrial revolution. Moreover, they allowed writers to reach millions of new customers who could afford cheaper mass-produced books. As a result, a lot of works were produced that challenged or offended the prevailing cultures, societies, and authorities, and sometimes even sparked wars, revolutions [8, 9], and mass killings [10]. However, without the printing machines, the Renaissance and modern scientific and technological innovations would not have been possible. Fast forward to our time, the innovation of computers and the internet that enabled humans to communicate live by typing on keyboards and touchscreens, in addition to talking and gesturing, accelerated social, educational, and economic growth to unprecedented levels. In the large economies that make up 70% of global GDP, the Internet contributes more than agriculture [11]. Let that sink in for a minute. This is a huge leap in human history compared to painting and writing.


The illogical fear of AI debunked


The image is generated by Bing AI


    Many people have a strange fear that AI will end human independence in decision-making, or take over human thinking and creativity. This phobia is illogical when we think about the relationship of AI with humanity rationally. What AI is doing to humans is not something unprecedented. It has happened many times. It happened when humans transitioned from hunter-gatherer tribes to agricultural societies. It also happened when humans transitioned from agricultural to industrial-dominated societies, and from industrial to digital/service-dominated societies. In all these transitions, the nature of work and human lifestyles changed. With AI, a new wave of personal assistants is on the way that will transform the fields of education, healthcare, politics, law, communication, finance, and more. During this transition (as in previous transitions), there will be a massive transfer of wealth, power, and decision-making abilities, and a significant shift in worldviews and behaviors of people that will exacerbate some of the dominant conflicts and fault lines, and bring about societal changes at an accelerated pace (I will leave these predictions/extrapolations for a future blog post). However, based on past transitions, I strongly believe that with AI assistance becoming part of our lives, the transfer of wealth, power, and societal changes will benefit most people (not just the 1% wealthy and the 10% credentialed elites).


References


[1] What is Generative Ai?. C3 AI. (2023, May 11). https://shorturl.at/HJLPU

[2] The Archaeologist. (2022, December 18). Ten oldest known cave paintings in the world. The Archaeologist. https://shorturl.at/fiFG4 

[3] Brown, S. (n.d.). Where did writing come from?. Getty. https://shorturl.at/dgmvL 

[4] Wikipedia contributors. (2023, June 21). Sumer. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 16:06, June 21, 2023, from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Sumer&oldid=1161256256 

[5] Wikipedia contributors. (2023, June 1). Graham Hancock. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 16:31, June 21, 2023, from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Graham_Hancock&oldid=1157970488

[6] Martin B. Sweatman, The Younger Dryas impact hypothesis: Review of the impact evidence,

Earth-Science Reviews, Volume 218, 2021, 103677, ISSN 0012-8252,    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103677.

[7] Shermer, M. (2017, June 1). No, there wasn’t an advanced civilization 12,000 years ago. Scientific American. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/no-there-wasnt-an-advanced-civilization-12-000-years-ago/ 

[8] Wikipedia contributors. (2023, June 26). Russian Revolution. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 21:48, July 6, 2023, from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Russian_Revolution&oldid=116196932

[9] Wikipedia contributors. (2023, June 19). Chinese Communist Revolution. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 21:51, July 6, 2023, from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Chinese_Communist_Revolution&oldid=1160842672 

[10] Wikipedia contributors. (2023, July 4). The Holocaust. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 22:10, July 6, 2023, from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=The_Holocaust&oldid=1163441526

[11] James Manyika and Charles Roxburgh (2001) The great transformer: The impact of the Internet on economic growth and prosperity, McKinsey Global Institute, https://shorturl.at/AJNV9